HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

United States

*    The Federal Reserve committed to keep rates on hold through the end of 2014 this week, while today’s Q4 GDP released underscored the fragility of the economic recovery. Unfortunately, further monetary easing isn’t what is going to provide the jolt the economy needs.

*    What’s holding the economy back right now isn’t the price of credit; it’s the lack of quality borrowers. The pool of potential borrowers willing and able to take advantage of lower interest rates is limited. And as long as aggregate demand remains depressed, businesses will continue to put off investing until the economic outlook improves.

*    What the economy needs right now is more effective fiscal policy solutions. However, fiscal policy so far has tended to undermine the recovery rather than aid it.

Canada

*    With the U.S. Federal Reserve on hold until 2014, we expect the Bank of Canada to leave its key overnight rate unchanged until mid-2013.  In addition to this delayed start, we now forecast that the return to the neutral interest rate will take place over a longer period of time.

*    The revised interest rate outlook led the loonie to break through parity versus the greenback for the first time since November.  Canadian bond yields also fell across the curve.

*    The lower-for-longer interest rate profile implies an upward risk to our near-term domestic economic outlook.  At the same time, households are already heavily indebted and the national real estate market is overvalued by roughly 10-15%.  If both measures continue to ramp up in the presence of low interest rates, they will become heightened downside risks to the medium-term economic outlook.

Webcasts:

Canada:  https://www.brainshark.com/tdeconomics/vu?pi=zIazmYiZsz1sQYz0

United States:  https://www.brainshark.com/tdeconomics/vu?pi=zGlz15w9G0z1sQYz0

TD Financing Services and TD Broker Services sales teams have merged! Ask me about Prime OR Non prime deals!

Lorie Martin I Regional Sales Manager BC I Broker Services I TD Canada Trust | 604 346 5976 or 1 877 273 7498 x 2501

News Release: January 4, 2012

2011 REAL ESTATE MARKET SHOWCASES REGIONAL VARIATION

(Surrey, BC) – Overall, Fraser Valley’s real estate market in 2011 was below the 10-year average in property sales and above average in the number of new listings received, however, according to the president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, results varied widely depending on the community and property type.

Sukh Sidhu observes, “I can’t remember a year that illustrates better how local real estate is and the importance of talking to your REALTOR® before making a decision to buy or sell. For example, in my community of Abbotsford, sales of single family homes dropped by almost 7 per cent compared to 2010, pushing prices down slightly, while in South Surrey/White Rock sales increased year over year by 45 per cent resulting in double-digit price increases.”

The Board’s Multiple Listing Service® processed 15,529 sales in 2011 compared to 14,891 the previous year, an increase of 4 per cent, while the number of new listings remained about the same – 31,592 in 2011 compared to 31,437 in 2010. Over the year, the number of active listings for buyers to choose from dropped by 9 per cent going from 8,139 properties in December 2010 to 7,399 in December 2011.

Although 2011 ranks the third slowest year for sales in Fraser Valley since 2002, it was only 10 per cent less than the 10-year average of 17,210 sales. The volume of new listings received in 2011 was 6 per cent more than the 10-year average of 29,867 new listings, placing last year third in ranking since 2002.

Sidhu adds, “One trend from 2011 that is clear was the preference for single family homes. For the most part in our region, both sales and prices of townhomes and condos either stayed on par with 2010 or decreased.”

In December, the benchmark price of a detached home in the Fraser Valley was $522,998, an increase of 3.3 per cent compared to $506,145 in December 2010 and a decrease of 1.7 per cent compared to November.

For townhouses, the benchmark price in December was $315,330, a decrease of 2.1 per cent compared to the same month last year when it was $322,054 and down 3.8 per cent compared to November. The benchmark price of apartments in December was $237,285, a decrease of 1.2 per cent compared to December 2010 and a decrease of 0.5 per cent compared to November.

Average prices year over year show detached homes up 9.1 per cent – $610,269 in 2011 compared to $559,456 in 2010. The average price of townhomes increased by 2.6 per cent, going from $336,484 in 2010 to $345,138 in 2011 and the average price of apartments increased by 0.9 per cent going from $223,910 in 2010 to $225,976 in 2011.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board is an association of 2,893 real estate professionals who live and work in the BC communities of North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Langley, Abbotsford, and Mission. The FVREB marked its 90-year anniversary in 2011.